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Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 5 min read · by the Wealth Signal newsroom

Overnight

In Thursday's session, the S&P 500 rose to 7,638 (+1.14%); the Nasdaq Composite rose to 26,523 (+0.39%); the Dow fell to 51,683 (−0.18%).
The 10-year Treasury yield ended Thursday at 4.94%, down 7.0 basis points on the day.
WTI crude settled at $107.02 a barrel; bitcoin traded near $80,844.
The VIX closed at 15.44 on Thursday, down 12.82% on the day.

The Big Story

The economy is sending two signals at once. The Fed is listening to the louder one.

Payrolls fell. Retail sales fell. Inflation held at 3.4%. And three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates. Here is how those facts fit together.

Read the full analysis →

3 Things That Matter

New Residential Construction, Thursday — Housing starts and building permits. Rate-sensitive, and therefore an early indicator of how monetary policy is landing.

Moving

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This Week’s Numbers

Thu 24 Sep

New Residential Construction

Earnings

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One Chart

Where the inflation actually is

US consumer prices, 12-month change by component — July 2026

Strip out energy and inflation is 2.5%, close to target. Energy is why the headline is 3.4%.

US consumer prices, 12-month change by component — July 2026
Gasoline	24.6%
Energy (all)	14.7%
Headline CPI	3.4%
Shelter	3.2%
Food	3.0%
Core CPI	2.5%

% change vs. July 2025Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, July 2026

From The economy is sending two signals at once. The Fed is listening to the louder one..

Next On The Calendar

New Residential Construction — Thu 24 Sep, 5 days away
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — Tue 29 Sep, 10 days away
Gross Domestic Product — Wed 30 Sep, 11 days away