The economy is sending two signals at once. The Fed is listening to the louder one.
Payrolls fell. Retail sales fell. Inflation held at 3.4%. And three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates. Here is how those facts fit together.
Economy · Indicator
Fed funds 3.75–4.00%
The data feed reports an observation dated 19 Sep 2026, newer than this release. It has not been written up yet, so this page still shows Federal funds target range, decision of 16 Sep 2026. It is not out of date — it is the most recent release we have verified.
The Fed raised the target range by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September. The vote was unanimous — 12–0 — after July's three dissents.
| Decision | Raise by 1/4 percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent |
|---|---|
| Vote | 12–0 |
| Change from previous | +25 basis points, from 3.50–3.75% |
| What changed since July | July's decision was a hold carried 9–3 with three dissents wanting exactly this increase. Seven weeks later the whole Committee agreed with them. |
| Why it matters | Headline CPI had not fallen — 3.4% in August, with the monthly pace accelerating to 0.4% — and the labour market had stopped looking weak once July was revised to a gain. |
Earlier releasesEach one preserved as published. We add a release rather than edit one.
Related analysis
24.6%
Inflation is 3.4%. Gasoline is up 24.6% over the same twelve months. That gap explains almost every argument about the economy right now.
Sources
- FOMC statement, September 16, 2026Federal Reserve Board · Sep 16, 2026 · Primary source
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