The economy is sending two signals at once. The Fed is listening to the louder one.
Payrolls fell. Retail sales fell. Inflation held at 3.4%. And three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates. Here is how those facts fit together.
Economy · Indicator · Archive
Housing 6.67%
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.67% in the week to 13 August.
| 30-year fixed | 6.67% |
|---|---|
| Fed funds target at the time | 3.50–3.75% |
| Why it matters | The mortgage rate does not track the Fed's policy rate directly — it follows the 10-year Treasury and the spread lenders charge over it. |
Related analysis
24.6%
Inflation is 3.4%. Gasoline is up 24.6% over the same twelve months. That gap explains almost every argument about the economy right now.
Sources
- Primary Mortgage Market SurveyFreddie Mac · Aug 13, 2026 · Primary source
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